JD stx38 black deck transmission problem

This morning I was mowing with my JD STX38 (gear drive) when all of a sudden I heard a small noise and the tractor stopped moving. The engine and mower deck was running. I could move the gearshift handle in all forward and reverse gears but it remained sitting still. I pushed it to my shop thinking maybe it was a broken belt. When I reached on both sides of the frame I could feel the belt with tension and appeared not to be broken. With the engine shut off and manually pushing it you can put the gearshift in any gear and each gear engages. I'm thinking if I could could put my hand on the transmission pulley and see if it doesn't turn it may be internal. I also tried leaving the foot pedal clutch all the way with the engine running and I saw some smoke by the engine pulley and idler. The last 6 numbers of the model # is: 253194 (1995 model I believe) and my JD stx38 tech manual has it listed as a Dana 5 speed transmission. I'll have to remove the mower deck for further inspection. Doesn't anyone have an opinion what could be wrong or has experienced a situation as mine? Any & all assistance in always appreciated.
 
In this order:
1. Deck belt, broken or off pulleys. Or failed idler pulley. (I always change all the idler pulleys when putting a drive belt on. Its too much work to take the deck back out if an idler pulley fails after you just changed the drive belt.)

2. Stripped trasmission input pulley. (I am thinking the STX38 used an input pulley that fit over a hexagonal place on the shaft. If not that model, some other Deeres are like that. They eventually wear the hex out of the hub in the pulley. Then the input pulley spins on the transmission shaft.)

3. Internal transmission problem.

Only further investigation will tell for sure.
 

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