Getting ready for the USDA report...

Is anyone else sitting on the edge of their seat for the USDA NASS report?

It seems there hasn't been anything good in the news as far as drought busting. We had a good spell of rains lately, most of my FS corn is over 10 feet tall, tassled, shooting silk on 3 ears per stalk. It's looking really good in spite of the weather. The rest of my corn is 3 feet tall, tassled, bottom leaves burned, and the deer made sweet love to the tops of every ear.


I'm really getting anxious as to what the USDA has to say about the rest of the country, as teh CBOT will surely take notice. I think it closed around $7.80 yesterday. If the report lowers average yeild by another 10-15 bushel, I'd say it will remain in the $8.50-9.00 range until harvest time. I'd imagine that if next spring is bad for planting, the price could top $10. In a way, I'd rather we all get $5 corn and have average yeilds, but, for the little bit I have that is excellent (about 68 acres) I'm so anxious to see what the price will do, as I didn't get any crop insurance.


I think I am going to brushhog down some corn and put it in wheat this fall. I should make some huge yeilds on wheat with all those nutrients and green manure. With $9 wheat, that will keep my diesel tank topped off for next summer.


I feel terrible getting a good yield this year, with all teh dispair in the corn belt, but normally, I watch everyone else glean big rewards, while I get a 75 bu/a average. So, this year, it will be bittersweet. I guarantee I won't neglect the crop insurance again.

Why would you feel terrible? After years of being on the short end of the stick it's finally your turn. You should be very grateful, not feeling guilty.

I agree with you John but the shortage isn't here
yet. We still have some corn in the bins from past
years. Should that be sold at the high prices?

I think they are trying to hold the price down
till Oct. That's when the true yields will be
seen.

I know I'm in a very small pocket here with my
P___ poor crop. I'm predicting a national average
in the 100 bu range and not 140 like the USDA.

It was and is dry but the heat caused more
problems as well.

Don't feel bad about your good crops. Enjoy them.

Gary

PS I made a circle yesterday thru the brown corn
in the photo with the 4 wheeler. Went in about 150
yards made a circle and never saw a single ear of
any size. None. The green corn has little and no
ears as well.

That 70 acre field will not make 20 bushels to the
acre. I have 200 acres that will not average 30.
The other 250 might make 50 bu. It caught a 1/2"
rain that the 200 didn't at the end of June.

They took about 50 cents/bushel off wheat in three days because it MIGHT rain in the midwest and make the corn better.

John,I hope I'am wrong but maybe you shouldn't be counting on your FS corn as much as you are.Most of the "Genuity"stacked corn in low rain condion years past has Canabalized itself to survive and has a poor yield turnout vs normal corn in the end.50-100 less.Ears but no grain.Like Gary said,I believe there is still a lot of 2011 corn un sold in bins today.

Some started picking corn this week here in Mo. and their will be alot more in the next couple of weeks, so far an average of 50bpa.

The corn crop this year is going to be smaller but no body has any idea where it will end up at. This drought is different than 1988. There are pockets of very good corn and areas that have terrible corn. Some times that may even be in the same field.

The worst I have seen is in South west WI. There are many fields there that are not even three feet tall. I was down to Quincy IL. just yesterday. I went down through Mt. Pleasant, IA and came back up thought Muscutine,Ia. Some of the corn is terrible but there was a lot of real good corn in areas too. It is really soil and variety different in just short distances.

I have several side hills that the dry spell in mid-May destroyed the stand. So they are going to be 70-80 bushels but I have several larger fields that are looking great and should be in the 150 range. I have shucked back a lot of ears an they are pollinated and filling pretty good.

I have the best crop of soybeans that I have had in several years. Zero weed, bug, or mold problems. They are podding real well right now. We had 7 ths of rain last Friday and we got a half inch just Wed. night. We have thunderstorms chances the next four days. So even if we just get one of them it is going to help. I have been fixing some fence and there is still moisture down in the ground. It is 10-12 inches down but it is there. I also have some tile lines still running small amounts.

So the guys that think they are going to hit the high price Lotto maybe in for a surprise. The historical high price happens in late July and early August in prior drought years. The high price will cause corn usage to drop like a rock. The ethanol plants will not be open with $8 corn. There will be feed yards empty and hog barns that don't get filled. So the usage will regulate itself some what.

Corn yeilds here in Louisiana running 150 dryland to 200+ irrigated.

I don't begrudge you your good prices. 'Bout time huh? BUT....think about this. Let me ask you a "practical" question. What end-user of corn can pay $9-$10.00 per bushel and make a profit? Seriously, think about it. If I came to you and said I want to sell you this corn for $9.00 per bushel, what would you do with it in order to make money??

The markets "job" is to either limit demand or create it. I personally quit feeding corn when it got to $4.00.

I was all over Kansas, Nebraska and Oklahoma earlier this week. The only corn I saw that will be combined was irrigated - and in some places even that was taking a serious hit.