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Re: OT - 1980 Grain Embargo - Would Things Be Different Today???


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Posted by coonie minnie on April 17, 2016 at 17:36:56 from (50.105.249.253):

In Reply to: OT - 1980 Grain Embargo - Would Things Be Different Today??? posted by Bill VA on April 17, 2016 at 15:04:51:

You are asking a complicated question. I would echo the others in that there were many factors. The 1980 grain embargo, if I'm not mistaken, was only against the Soviet Union. (Others need to confirm this detail). Nonetheless, they were a big customer at the time.

It was not unprecedented- Nixon had closed the ports to all grain exports early in the 70's to "curtail inflation."

Nixon's trade deal was at the beginning of "good times" in ag, and Carter's Grain Embargo at the end.

Since then, both parties have been wiser to foreign trade, and this has been good for ag. The bigger issue lately has been currency values- yes, other things too, but how much we export has a strong correlation with the value of the $. The recent commodities boom was fueled by a low $, willing customers in asia with strong economies, world-wide weather issues, ethanol becoming mainstream in the US, and a host of other things.

As for what caused the BTO's, it wasn't the embargo (that hurt everybody, big and small). It had more to do with farm policy, crop insurance, the want to spread fixed costs by some and the want to get out by others. It has been that way for a long time, and in a lot of different industries. There are currently only about 6 major railroads in North America, where in 1950 the number would have been closer to 100. Auto maker numbers have declined; oil companies, coal companies, retailers, etc. We are not alone- perhaps we are better off than many industries.

I make my living farming. Our paycheck comes from the sale of milk, cows, calves, corn, soy, wheat, and we have added a value added product- cheese. I am disappointed that most major candidates for president today (both sides!) seem bent on trade disruption. That scares me. We do not need to repeat the 1980s. Or the 1930s.

Thank you for asking a hard question!


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