Beef Prices this fall

Just wondering what you guys think the price of cattle at the stocksales will do this fall. Went to the sale this past Wednesday and Bulls were bringing $1.09. Been kinda mulling the idea of buying 3 or 4 steers in the 800 lb range and along about December butchering and keeping 1 & selling the others hanging weight. With the prices as they are right now I just don't see where I could come out any at all ahead of the game. What are your thoughts. Keith

I got out of the cow business long ago because of droughts and falling markets. My neighbor bought a herd of cows last year, got scared this year and hauled them to the sale. Took a $10,000 whippin' on them. (One of them neighbors that you just stand there and shake your head at the things he does.) Markets are flooded with cows right now here, because of the drought. We seem to have 1 good year and 5 bad years. Can't catch up. Right now here is a good time to buy with the prices at a low, but they will go down even more as the drought continues. Aminal condition will decline also as feed gets scarce.

Pastures are good in this area so the prices are steadily climbing, that's why I was wondering. The bull that brought 1.09 weighed 2225 lbs., the rest of them went for anywhere from 1.02 to 1.081/2. Looks like you all down there are gonna need to buy hay this year again. Sent some down around Austin last year, have a friend that lives down there. Sure hope your weather improves. Keith

Predicting what the beef prices will do is about as easy as predicting the weather.
Only way to make money is to buy low sell high.
You figger out when.

this drought, makes ya buy low, sell lower........

Cattle are at an all time high and projected shortages of calves for the next couple of years, but, if the economy in general does not improve soon beef prices could suffer. As far as making a profit feeding 8 weight steers it depends on what you have produced yourself to feed them because cattle that size take up to 10 pounds of dry matter feed per pound of gain and if you feed cattle what you are really selling is corn, corn silage, supplement, hay and what ever else is in your ration, just as when your grazing calves you are selling grass, no grass, no profit. The successful commodity cattle feeders operate on the ''sell/buy'' principal, buy replacement cattle on the same day (more or less) as you sell your ready cattle and the price should equal out, comparetively speaking, leaving the cost of gain and rate of gain to turn a profit, or loss. There was a better chance for small operator profit up until the mid 70's because calves usually sold at a discount to fat cattle and, at the time, there were still thousands of independent packing plants in the USA and competition for the fed cattle was tighter than it is today.

This year we"ve had plenty of rain, plenty of pasture and hay so far, could still turn dry any any day.

Cattle prices very good, no complaints if your selling. Buying is a different story.
Feeder Steers
300- 400 164.00-165.00
400- 500 147.00-164.00
500- 600 129.00-146.50
600- 700 128.00-142.75
700- 800 126.00
Feeder Heifers
300- 400 127.00
400- 500 120.00-135.00
500- 600 125.00-130.00

Feeder Bulls
300- 400 157.00-161.00
400- 500 123.00-145.50
500- 600 118.00-129.00
600- 700 114.00-119.00
Slaughter Cattle average in the 80"s to low 90"s and holding steady.

What this fall holds Iam not sure.

If the Superior Auctions on Dish/Direct TV are any indication for Fall delivery cattle prices aren't going to weaken.

Im always biased to selling in the summer and buying in the late fall. When the spring calving herds make there biggest runs into the market, usually in early November. Buying now to sell into December hits me as selling into a falling market spread. Not a place I try to be.

If history is any indicator, you should do the opposite of what I advise, because I have a knack for selling at the bottom of the cattle market, but anyway, here's how I see it:

US beef herd is decreasing at a brisk pace. The driving factors are high corn price and the devastating drought in TX, OK. $7 corn and $1.00 fat cattle does not compute and rangeland herds don't work without rain. Brood cows are going to slaughter at a very high rate and that probably means solid fat prices for at least 2-3 years.

You've also got some big question marks though. First in foremost is the trade deal that is apparently falling apart between the US and South Korea. Without the South Korea market for US beef, prices will suffer even with the reduced herd. Basically, we need that export market for US beef because even with the reduced herd, we just don't consume that much beef here anymore.

Anyway, I'm predicting (hoping) that we'll have a bottom of feeder prices the $1.35 range and a bottom in fats in the $1.15 range going forward. If h3ll freezes over and China releases their ban on US beef imports, the price goes way up.

heres the way I see it,(1) not the best time to buy simply because cattle are so high(2)feed prices ,unless you have a large excess of pasture,are high also so you might in all reality get stuck haveing more in them than you can get out if you feed much(3)record high cattle prices means lots more heifers are going to market,and older cows also(4)hay prices because of the drought in a lot of the southwest and flooding elsewhere are going to go up, and your grass may make more money that way instead of trying to turn it into beef(5) IF you have a abundance of pasture,I personally believe the market is going to be for replacement heifers.due again to so many ranchers cashing in on the higher prices,drought and folks not having water to hold them,and flooding else where forcing guys to sell cattle they would normally hold as breeders.(6)if I was buying now,and had the grass and water available,I would stock up on heifers and hold them for a year or maybe two and sell them as replacements.big ranches are selling at a large rate cashing in on the current market,small guys are being forced to sell,and cattle numbers overall are way down.so if i were betting on the future thats where I would try to be sitting next spring or fall. shortage of beef overall "should" hold market high,but sooner or later folks are going to be needing to replace cows theyve culled.big guys around me are already starting to hold heifers back,they've sold already all their older cull cows,and feedlots are buying younger and younger stock,to supply future demand and feeding them longer.if i had the land sitting idle,i think I would be sitting with a herd of good two year old heifers ready to go when folks start hunting replacements.i would try to utilize my excess grass by holding them at a low enough stocking rate that i could keep them year round or nearly so with little supplemental feed and just sit on them for a while.my opinion of course..

Read a report that the drought in the south central region will affect the cattle industry for the next 3-4 years. So demand will be high and supply will be low, therefore prices high.

One thing you have to consider.Wife and I dont buy beef now.Just chicken and pork.I stopped looking at beef prices in the store.Retired people have to make choices.Beef was the first thing to go with us.Talked with a mid aged fellow yesterday.He says things are bad at his house.People are selling second cars,boats.Saw a lot of near new pick up trucks for sale in driveways last year.None now that Im looking for one.