New "farmers" find out about prices!

Please don't make this political!


http://news.yahoo.com/growers-struggle-glut-legal-pot-washington-state-061115131--finance.html

farming is a risk.......no matter what you grow!


Rick

They will just have to figure out what works
and what don't. When I was a kid the area was
FULL of overgrown Christmas trees. I guess
everybody thought growing them was a good deal
but when they all matured at once there was way
more supply than demand and they were never
harvested. I saw a lot of them cleared with
bulldozers. I don't know what I was thinking. I
should have bought some of those properties,
built log homes out of the trees and resold
them.

I've seen it happen countless times. When hog prices were good, everybody that had 10 acres bought a few sows. Within a couple of years the feeder pig market was toast. Then it was ostrich and emus and then alpacas. Now it's organic and non GMO as well as MJ. These are all limited markets and some are just fads, not saying that some can make money but it takes time and you have to weather the bad with the good.

Please don't take this the wrong way...but.. why would you post something about a controversial and POLITICAL subject and then say "don't make it political?" Personally, I don't care about the politics of pot, but at the same time, does it make sense to throw a leg of lamb into a lion's den, and then expect the lion not to go after it???
Seems to me not long ago, Mr. Bryce got himself into some hot water for a very similar statement.

No different from any other farming or industry really when prices are high everyone and their brother wants into it and when prices fall most of those that got in when prices were high sell at the bottom of the market especially true with cattle.
Meat goats have gone thru the same thing when Boers and Kikos arrived in the USA the prices were thru the roof,then they fell.I bought out a Kiko breeder who was bailing out prices stayed around $1/lb for a long time,then started inching up.The last load I sold went for over $3 lb.While they were cheap no one was getting in many breeders got out.Now I'm getting calls all the time from people looking for does.So it goes.

Farmers are the worst about understanding simple supply and demand economics.

This year: Price going up? Let's flood the market!

Next year: Hey, how come the price is so low now?

If farmers could figure out how to get together and control the markets like OPEC, they could keep commodity prices profitably high and take all the volatility out of the market.

Apparently smoking pot doesn't make you smarter as some people claim.

Cry me a river....I don't feel sorry for them....

I'd not have expected things to turn out any differently in the most highly taxed state in the country. Simple fact is, once they add all the taxes on (at every level), the illegal (street) pot is less expensive than the legal stuff. With the added bonus that the buyers now don't have to be worried about being busted for possession. And street pot is more convenient as well, because many local guvments have banned the legal pot businesses.

Liquor used to be sold through state-owned stores in Washington, and Costco and other big retailers successfully lobbied to change the law to take the state out and turn it over to private business. In the process, the state added so many taxes that booze is now significantly more expensive than before. The state Liquor Control Board makes as much as they did before, without the pesky overhead of actually selling the stuff. Nice work, if you can find it. Booze is much cheaper in our neighboring states, so people buy when they travel. Really cheap in Arizona- the snow birds bring it back by the case.

I have work in Longview occasionally, and have been known to sneak across the bridge to Rainier, Oregon. Its pretty convenient, because by extreme coincidence, there is a liquor store at the base of the bridge on the Oregon side. With boxes stacked by the door, because of high volume per customer sales. Go figger.

I know you said to keep politics out of it, but that's hard to do when politics is the reason for the situation.

That's Called a forming a (Union)...

Didn't mention in my post above that the growing end of it is also strictly licensed and controlled. Have to get a state license to grow it, and have to account for where every gram goes. The only part that's not controlled is the price. I think it will eventually sort out to where the stores in the big cities (and their suppliers) will do OK, but not make a killing like they were expecting. Out in the hinterlands, especially in the conservative counties in farming country on the east side of the state (where it is banned in many areas), the legal pot industry will just fade away.

We have a pretty heavy church following of a particular type down here. Finding small towns that are "voted wet" are increasing but few and far between.

Such recently was the case of a small farming community of about 20k residents who lived on one side of the Red River which establishes the dividing line between Okla. and TX. Okla. as a state is wet but the alcohol content is limited to 3.2% on beer. It's measured differently but Bush for example is 4.1 so it's not all that bad.

Just as you said about Oregon, on the Okla. end of the bridge was a little "Quick Stop" doing a stellar business.

Well, by hook or crook the little town went wet. Haven't been back up there, but one can bet that their business had pretty much dried up.

Just another pesky law out of the way. For years and years TX. had what was referred to as "The Blue Law" which prohibited sales of most everything but basic necessities, primarily food stuffs on Sundays. Well that's long gone thank goodness. You know when you work 5-6 days a week and Sunday is when you spend half the day in church and try to get the week's chores done in what's left, you just don't get much done.

Thank goodness for progress.

Mark

Part of it is the seed companies telling farmers their product will produce more bushels per acre for more profitability but when you do that, and your neighbor does etc...a flooded market is what happens. Yet the following year the seed companies come with the same story. As long as they can get you to buy that is all that matters to them.

"If farmers could figure out how to get together"

That's funny - like hauling bullfrogs in a wheelbarrow

I totally agree. I used to work for a man years ago when we lived in Australia, grew the same acreage of wheat, barley and milo every year, never changed. Asked him one time and he said something that made a lot of sense. When you increase acreage on one thing everybody else is too which floods the market. Example increase wheat acres reduces barley acres, drops wheat prices and increases barley price. Stay the same you don't get hurt as bad on the dropping price and gain on the increasing price.

But the real bugaboo is the tax. Legal growers can't compete with the black marketers because of the tax.

So again, taxes makes crooks. Remember prohibition of alcohol?

The tax issue was how they prosecuted the gansters. Not cause they were selling an illegal product, but because they hadn't paid the tax on it.

It was the treasurery department that prosecuted the gansters.

Gene

They knew that going in, that the illegal side of it would be a factor. So it seems they responded to demand, but when supply was up, sales went down and the integrity of the illegal producers pricing still sets the standard. So the black market supply proves to be stable enough to weaken the legal market. Media presents this as news, to many its the same thing that has been going on for many many years.

I can't see the illegal competition going away by any means, same as moonshine, its going to be out there no matter what happens with legal production, and the laws which allow it. Around here its plainly evident that it is not difficult to grow, outside at least, judging by the hundred or so marijuana eradication flights flown annually in surrounding areas. In recent years I have noticed an increase of this activity which is a stark contrast judging by numbers of flights off season and recalling how it was in the past. I mean, they never flew low and observed my vegetable gardens before, its now an annual inspection LOL ! There is no doubt they have stepped up their game to find illegal grow sites locally. With that in mind, any person intent on having their own supply, who supports neither legal or illegal production of mass quantity or otherwise, is going to find some way to do it themselves. An inside closet or grow room or some other way outside. The latest helicopter addition/upgrade to the ARNG fleet, the Lakota UH-72A, will likely spot any significant outdoor grow sites it flies over, given how its equipped. So those kinds will be kept in check, and this newer helicopter augments what the state police do regularly. There is a highly visible law enforcement factor for them to contend with, but determination always wins when it comes to the human condition. People are still going to find ways to grow their own in small quantities. They'll only find a very small percentage of those that do this undetected, and likely nail those who plant large outdoor sites or think they can get away with a large indoor grow, as it seems they always get caught and become the big news story. Well last summer, on the other side of town, some person had 9 plants in a vegetable garden and they showed up, made a big deal of it. Those people were not producers, just growing for themselves, how many thousands are doing the same, they caught 1. The small individual grower is definitely another form of competition, same with moonshine, and that is as true today as it was hundreds of years ago. It makes sense that the price can be undermined for various reasons. None of this was anything new when the laws changed and it went legal, so they knew all along, yet per the article, it still became a detrimental factor to contend with, a few years into the venue.

It's interesting because there appears to be a similar parallel situation with organic milk, I was reading about the shortage of it and the same economics, and situations producers face. The same things that apply to conventional farming and dairy production will apply to the organic side of it. Organic dairy production seems to lag in production given how they have to operate, so the grassy pastures and quality hay are offset by the winter months, well from what I have read.

Regardless of the subject matter, the economics is good discussion material, you know, if one keeps it civil

They want and will demand their pre-determined cut, their fee to make it legal, legal protection if you will, so the tax gets passed on to the customer and the illegal side of it still takes a lions share because they don't want to pay more for it.

So in a sense legalization in this manner has some problems to deal with.

If they made it legal to have 3 plants per household or some arbitrary small number, you pay a fee for a permit or something, they get the revenue, the customer gets what they want, simple in theory. Then it leaves room on the control side of it, which I can understand the concern, get a permit for your 3, they grow 27 hidden and sell the rest, and or how many things similar.

Be interesting to see how this situation eventually winds up, maybe they set it up to fail so it goes full circle and they end up where they started when it was illegal.

You actually go to OREEGONE to buy booze?!?

One of (if not the only) good thing about living in Kalifornia is how much cheaper liquor is here than in Oreegone. The little store in Hilt, Ca (bout a mile south of the Oreegone border) is %20-30 cheaper than it is in the Oreegone controlled liquor stores.

Ben

But the Oregon stores are probably 30% cheaper than Warshinton. I end up traveling to California once or twice a year and always stock up on booze. Last time I brought back 12 bottles, probably saved a couple hundred bucks.

Its all relative. The drive to Kalifornia might just take all of the profit out of it!

ANYPLACE is cheaper than Washington!

(quoted from post at 08:43:33 01/16/15)
Seems to me not long ago, Mr. Bryce got himself into some hot water for a very similar statement.

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If I remember correctly, you were the one who first went after Bryce for that post, stating the same thing. Please don't.

I'm really tired of it. Don't take this the wrong way, but when you post stuff like this, as the same, in the case of Bryce; it starts a snowball effect and starts a flame war. I really don't like it, and I wish you would consider what you are saying, before you type. I've been on forums since 1994, before anything other than newsgroups existed and it always starts the same way. It is a bit of a faux pas.

Respectfully, from the other side of Pennsylvania,

John_PA

It's possible to talk politics without getting into a this side this that side that argument. Just doesn't happen often.

Back in the '60's, don't know about later on, booze was illegal in Mississippi. However booze stores were plentiful and were all OWNED BY THE STATE. Figure that. With a monoply the state could set whatever price the traffic would bear.

I do know that gambling was outlawed in the state and currently is a super tax revenue producing system directly and indirectly. To get the casino's down there they put them on floating barges and tied them up to local docks. Seems that they were physically on the Gulf of Mexico. Since they weren't on MS soil apparently there was no law against them. Probably half a dozen of them down there on the thin strip that MS extends along the GOM.

Mark

Sorry if I offended you, John. While it may offend you that I called out a couple of guys, it offends me when somebody makes a political statement and then proceeds to say not to make it political. And Bryce started out saying not to start a brand war, and makes a provocative statement that is pointed to that.

The way I see it, if you bring up a political subject, it is going to get political. That is the nature of the subject. Making a disclaimer in the opening sentence does not change the nature of the subject.

Also, I have just as much right to say what offends me as do you. I hope that we can respectfully agree to disagree.

(quoted from post at 10:44:25 01/17/15) Sorry if I offended you, John. While it may offend you that I called out a couple of guys, it offends me when somebody makes a political statement and then proceeds to say not to make it political. And Bryce started out saying not to start a brand war, and makes a provocative statement that is pointed to that.

The way I see it, if you bring up a political subject, it is going to get political. That is the nature of the subject. Making a disclaimer in the opening sentence does not change the nature of the subject.

Also, I have just as much right to say what offends me as do you. I hope that we can respectfully agree to disagree.

Click to expand...

Actually I was pointing out that the pot grower out there was learning the hard way about supply and demand and overproduction. I still think it's amusing. Had nothing to do with politics. It offends me when someone assumes they know what's on someone else's agenda. But I knew there were people on here who would try to make it political. Now we have to deal with people who try to control the board because they are offended over nothing.

Rick

Honestly, Rick, the politics of the whole thing would not have even occurred to me if you hadn't put that statement in the first sentence of your post. The whole subject would have been self explanatory without that statement.
I have been reading and posting on forums since the early 1980s. I had access to usenet as well as CompuServe, Delphi, and a couple of others that I don't even remember. In those days, we were 300 baud dialup. I did learn a few things over the years. Most importantly, I don't flame other posters. If I have something to say, I just say it, and others are free to agree or disagree. I address ANY other poster in a mature adult manner, devoid of profanity and vulgarity.

Some things rub me the wrong way. The "correct police" need to "myob" and not try to correct every minor error in grammar or detail. The "your insurance won't cover that" control freaks that want to tell others how to live also irritate me. And, the surest way to start a war is to start out a post with "don't make this a _______" (you fill in the blank) discussion. That is a sure fire guarantee that somebody will come along and do just what you requested them not to do. Sort of like putting a "wet paint" sign on a park bench. EVERYBODY that passes by will have to touch the bench to see for themselves.

So, I respectfully suggest that there were more subtle ways to divert this away from a political discussion without making a "dare you" statement in your opening sentence.

Sincerely, Jim from Allentown, PA

We can agree to disagree. I just want you to know that what you have said to Bryce was the start of a downward spiral on a young guy who really did care.

Oh well... What do I care?