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Tractor Talk Discussion Forum

High fuel cost a positive?

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circus

03-15-2008 05:24:52




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Perhaps high fuel costs have some positives. It's a import tariff creating living wages locally. Lowers traffic congestion. Site rental income from turbine sites. Upset consumers motivated toward alternative energy (me). New markets for manure. Planting, harvesting and fertilizer is a tough nut though. Any ideas?




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rrlund

03-15-2008 09:06:14




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 Re: High fuel cost a positive? in reply to circus, 03-15-2008 05:24:52  
This is a little off the subject,but I was watching Modern Marvels on the History Channel last night. They were telling the history of the oil industry. They said the oil pumped from that first well in Titusville Pa sold for $40 a barrel. That's $700 in todays money.



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jdemaris

03-15-2008 09:23:51




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 Re: High fuel cost a positive? in reply to rrlund, 03-15-2008 09:06:14  
In 1869, crude oil spiked to $80 per barrel which was a lot of money and I assume had a lot to do with speculation. I'm talking $80 in 1869 money, not converted to today's money. By 1880 it went down to $18 per barrel. I guess many things have their ups and downs.

Ford Model T cost $825 in 1908 which was a small fortune. By 1924 it went down to $265.



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mixaplix

03-15-2008 08:05:49




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 Re: High fuel cost a positive? in reply to circus, 03-15-2008 05:24:52  
yep I agree,small managable farming will come back and local economy will improve.technology ran wild and we got ahead of ourselves, now that we are getting kicked in the butt,this country will toughen up .



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Eric SEI

03-15-2008 11:50:42




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 Re: High fuel cost a positive? in reply to mixaplix, 03-15-2008 08:05:49  
I expect that out of season produce will be hit hardest by high energy prices. That asparagus from Peru in the grocery was flown in, has to be expensive shipping. Sweet corn trucked in from Florida 2 weeks before the local early corn is ready could be more expensive now to.

People may have to go back to canned or frozen vegetables to enjoy them out of season, I don't see much benefit to local farmers from that. Farmers markets may benefit, but many people prefer convenience over quality.

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jdemaris

03-15-2008 06:45:53




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 Re: High fuel cost a positive? in reply to circus, 03-15-2008 05:24:52  
Seems farming and food production is the major issue. USA agriculture is addicted to petroleum and I'm not sure we have the ability to go backwards. Too many small farms have been lost to development.

Unless there is some new innovation towards fertilzer, hercicides, pesticides, and fuels for running tractors - seems the only known alternative is back to low-intensity small farms with it might be possible to cultivate, organically fertilize, etc. Many of the Amish farmers still work like that to a degree, but even they use quite a bit of diesel fuel.

I understand the public dismay over fuel prices, but we'd be in more of a panic without food.
During both World Wars, many European farmers converted their tractors to run on wood and paper debris with gas-collector systems. It worked on that small scale - but can't see how a country the size of the USA could do it.

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MF294-4

03-15-2008 06:25:51




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 Re: High fuel cost a positive? in reply to circus, 03-15-2008 05:24:52  
Got a farmer here that went organic several years ago to save on inputs. He gets 3x the price for his crops but half a crop. Can't see the beans for the weeds. He doesn't get his combine out until everyone else is done and there is a hard frost. He thinks it is still a good decision but not for everyone.



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IaGary

03-15-2008 05:39:37




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 Re: High fuel cost a positive? in reply to circus, 03-15-2008 05:24:52  
For grain farmers it is a positive.

If crude oil gets back below $86 a barrel they can not keep producing ethanol from $4.50 plus corn.

If crude falls we will still have high input costs and low prices till things get balanced back out.

Gary



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billonthefarm

03-15-2008 06:48:21




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 Re: High fuel cost a positive? in reply to IaGary, 03-15-2008 05:39:37  
I agree, this high priced oil has helped make high priced corn. That being said, I believe we will see corn prices fall regardless of oil prices. We are seeing commodities at very profitable levels and the same can be said in other places around the world. According to the experts the largest wheat crop in the history of the world is out there looming on the horizon. Untold millions acres are coming into production, or being utilized better, in areas of the world because of the profit levels we are seeing and the crippling effect these grain prices are having on livestock operations will play into the likelyhood that in the next calendar year there will be no shortage of grain in the world. Grain supplies world wide right now are at record low levels. That coupled with the domestic demand has given us high priced corn. We all know high priced corn cures high priced corn. I have the same concerns as gary, if the markets fall we will quickly become unprofitable with inputs at these levels. After a very open discussion with my fertilizer supplier last week I am more discouraged than ever about where inputs are going. I was asking about buying fertilizer and NH3 for next fall. He said he didnt think they could go any higher and maybe I should wait a few months and see what happens. I asked him "is that what you would have told me a year ago" he said "yea probably" and we know how much it changed since then. I finally asked him if he had any good news and he said "no". He virtually promised that inputs would not fall back to old levels. What is going to make that worse is the fact that I am looking at buying inputs for 09 and the only way to cover that is to take a board position and risk a bunch of margin calls which are costing the big boys hundreds of millions currently. I'm not complaining, this is a very exciting time in agriculture and we are seeing history made everyday. Looks like we will get a chance to make money for a couple of years but the future isnt so clear. bill

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JT

03-15-2008 08:05:39




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 Re: High fuel cost a positive? in reply to billonthefarm, 03-15-2008 06:48:21  
The guy who farms my dads place was in the other day, was told, if he pre-bought NH3, paid 50% now, he could buy it at $775 a ton, this fall, they just about guaranteed it would be in the $1000.00 a ton range. don't know if that is a scare tactic or if there is any truth to it. time will tell.
Jim



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Bill(Wis)

03-15-2008 05:38:03




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 Re: High fuel cost a positive? in reply to circus, 03-15-2008 05:24:52  
If $5 a gallon gas would get half of the half-wits off the road, I'd be for it. I can deal with it. As far as farming goes, my neighbor is going organic. He saved $80k on fertilizer last year but his corn yield was half what it previously had been. On top of that, he bought a new MX210 tractor with the wheels (front and rear) set out at 60" and 120" for cultivating. Ran over the fields I don't know how many times and still had a LOT of weeds. How much fuel that took I don't even want to think about.

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Texasmark

03-15-2008 06:46:20




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 Re: High fuel cost a positive? in reply to Bill(Wis), 03-15-2008 05:38:03  
The guy is mining his soil nutruents. If he keeps that up, before long he won"t be growing anything.

Check it out with your local A&M University with a soil test.

Mark



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Bill(Wis)

03-15-2008 08:00:30




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 Re: High fuel cost a positive? in reply to Texasmark, 03-15-2008 06:46:20  
He's done all the soil tests. GPS grids, no less. He puts on tons of cow manure. Liquid and solid. Rotates alfalfa. He's a 4 yr graduate of Univ Wis-ag. Liming is OK with organics, it's just the commercial fertilizer and other chemicals that are no-nos. His alfalfa looks great. It's just the weeds in the corn.



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Texasmark

03-15-2008 16:05:16




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 Re: High fuel cost a positive? in reply to Bill(Wis), 03-15-2008 08:00:30  
Okayeeeee . Must have missed that part. I run a feed lot and turn my lot things into my hay patch also, Usually ad the chem stuff also, but this year dunno.

Mark



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Ian Jones, Nanaimo, Canad

03-15-2008 10:18:44




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 Re: High fuel cost a positive? in reply to Bill(Wis), 03-15-2008 08:00:30  
Spraying weeds in corn does not disturb the ground, less weeds. Cultivation leaves a perfect seedbed for some more weeds. In the garden by the time I get to the end of the row with the hoe killing weeds about 4000 showup for thier funeral.



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Bill(Wis)

03-15-2008 11:05:58




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 Re: High fuel cost a positive? in reply to Ian Jones, Nanaimo, Canad, 03-15-2008 10:18:44  
Cultivation can bring more latent weed seeds up into the "growing zone" as well. How well I remember those "good old days" when I would cultivate, cultivate and then cultivate some more. I'm glad those days are over, for me anyway. I spray, once.



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Texasmark

03-15-2008 16:07:30




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 Re: High fuel cost a positive? in reply to Bill(Wis), 03-15-2008 11:05:58  
Me too and I usually do the 3rd or 4th trip just before I plant. Spraying works, but I have a lot of houses around my hay patches and people don't like the smell of 2-4-D.

Mark



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36 coupe

03-16-2008 03:54:52




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 Re: High fuel cost a positive? in reply to Texasmark, 03-15-2008 16:07:30  
I have an old 1929 photo that shows 20 men with hoes.The caption says Hoeing Corn.I still hear the saying Ive been given a hard row to hoe.



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Texasmark

03-17-2008 07:24:00




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 Re: High fuel cost a positive? in reply to 36 coupe, 03-16-2008 03:54:52  
I too have seen pics of how it was done before mechanization and that saying about "the good old days" doesn't get it with me. I like being right where I am in the overall history of things.

Just thinking the other day about folks settling the West and the hardships placed on the women especially, with their unique hygiene problems.

Mark



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