Eric: I know there is a finite amount of oil on this planet. Now how much of it have we found??? No one knows.
At the current consumption rate there still is hundreds of years of supply known about. It just is the cost of getting the oil and refining it that is different.
As for the replacement fuel. I think it will not be corn based ethanol. You do not gain enough energy to make it the answer. The fuel energy balance numbers I read are that it takes 1 unit of energy to produce 1.3-1.6 units.(Depends on who's numbers you believe)
Sure cane is better at 1 to 1.8 units
The more encouraging numbers seem to come from switch grass. it is much high at 1 to 4-5 units.
My beef is that by the Government and special interest groups "PICKING/PUSHING" ethanol as the way to go is bad policy for many reasons. The biggest is the small gain we get for the money spent.
I think the long term effect is that the next new technology is further away because of the focus ethanol has gotten.
As for what I think that maybe. I think it will be a hydrogen based fuel source. If we can figure out how to break water down into hydrogen and oxygen then we have a clean plentiful fuel source. If we spent a fraction of the money we do on wind and ethanol on new research I think we would find the answer in my life time.
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