In my past research on buying newish tractors I found that new vs. old HP depends on the fuel delivery system. Meaning if the newer tractor has a electronically controlled commonrail fuel system than it is better than old. The engineers build in torque rise when needed and the motors are more economical on fuel because of the electronic management.
However, if the newer motor is still an old mechanically governed injection pump then it is very similar to older motors.
A 4040 with only 2400 hours (are you sure that the hours are correct?) sounds like a good deal to me. $8000 difference buys a great deal of repairs.
Which dealer are you better acquainted with or later on can you get better service from a JD dealer or NH?
Just from the info given I'd probably go with the 4040 and get a new air conditioner (if you live in warm climates) right away with the money difference and be good to go.
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Today's Featured Article - An Old-Time Tractor Demonstration - by Kim Pratt. Sam was born in rural Kansas in 1926. His dad was a hard-working farmer and the children worked hard everyday to help ends meet. In the rural area he grew up in, the highlight of the week was Saturday when many people took a break from their work to go to town. It was on one such Saturday in the early 1940's when Sam was 16 years old that he ended up in Dennison, Kansas to watch a demonstration of a new tractor being put on by a local dealer. It was an Allis-Chalmers tractor dealership,
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