In my past research on buying newish tractors I found that new vs. old HP depends on the fuel delivery system. Meaning if the newer tractor has a electronically controlled commonrail fuel system than it is better than old. The engineers build in torque rise when needed and the motors are more economical on fuel because of the electronic management.
However, if the newer motor is still an old mechanically governed injection pump then it is very similar to older motors.
A 4040 with only 2400 hours (are you sure that the hours are correct?) sounds like a good deal to me. $8000 difference buys a great deal of repairs.
Which dealer are you better acquainted with or later on can you get better service from a JD dealer or NH?
Just from the info given I'd probably go with the 4040 and get a new air conditioner (if you live in warm climates) right away with the money difference and be good to go.
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Today's Featured Article - Fordson Model N: Field Service Operations and Lubrication - by Anthony West. The daily or weekly servicing of any vehicle is of the utmost importance, and in days gone by when our favorite tractors were doing an important and Commercially vital job on the farm, these service operations would make a major difference to the running costs and economy of the farm. This being so, it surprises me to see how many enthusiasts attending rallies, shows etc, seem to be unaware of the importance of this constant attention. Possibly the modern machine with its 6,000 mile or even once
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